The FIDE Candidates and Womenโs Candidates Tournaments 2026 are set to begin in Paphos, Cyprus, in less than a week! As the global chess community gathers its breath, the singular question dominating every conversation is: Who will win the Candidates Tournament and emerge as the Challenger?
From March 28 to April 16, 2026, the opulent Cap St Georges Hotel & Resort will host the most demanding event in professional chess. The stakes are high as the winner of the 14-round double round-robin marathon will become the Challenger against the reigning World Champion Gukesh D.
Predictions have already begun to fly from the highest echelons of the game. Magnus Carlsen has thrown his weight behind the “Old Americans,” while Viswanathan Anand has highlighted the psychological influence on the game suggesting that this cycle could be a “now or never” opportunity for “veterans”. Former two-time World Champion Challenger Ian Nepomniachtchi shared his unique vision of the dangerous dark horse as Jan Gustafsson put his bet on aggressive players.
To navigate this high-stakes landscape, we must look closer at each contender. Below is a breakdown of the stats, momentum, and expert outlook for every player in the field.
Hikaru Nakamura (USA, 2810)
Entering as the world number two, Nakamura secured his place in the Candidates Tournament 2026 via the Rating Spot. His path to the Candidates was highly criticized as Nakamura needed to complete 40-FIDE rated games to be eligible for rating qualification. While completing the requirements, Hikaru notably stepped away from the exclusive invitational events, and competed in several open and weekend tournaments against much lower-rated players. While some doubt his chances in the tournament due to his focus on streaming career, Nakamura remains #2 on prediction markets with a 22% win probability. World #1 Magnus Carlsen has named him as one of the top-two favorites, noting that his maturity and lack of pressure make him a massive threat for first place.
Fabiano Caruana (USA, 2795)
The 2024 FIDE Circuit Winner is statistically the “natural favorite,” leading prediction markets with a 31% win probability. Caruana is making his fifth appearance in the Candidates Tournament, having famously won the 2018 edition before challenging Carlsen in one of the most compelling matches of the modern era. Fabiano’s recent form has been staggering, and expert consensus suggests that if experience and deep preparation are the deciding factors in Cyprus, Caruana is the man most likely to earn a ticket for the match against Gukesh. Caruana was marked as one of the favourites by Magnus Carlsen, Jan Gustafsson, Levon Aronian, Peter Svidler and other prominent figures in the world of chess.
Wei Yi (China, 2754)
The 2025 FIDE World Cup Runner-up is widely considered the tournamentโs ultimate dark horse. Once the world’s premier prodigy who broke GM Magnus Carlsen’s record for the youngest player to reach 2700 rating at the age of 15 (and still holds it!), Wei Yi is definitely someone you should pay attention at! Two-time former World Championship Challenger Ian Nepomniachtchi praised him for deep calculation and fearless attacking instincts, and the analysts argue he is the “best pure chess player” in the field, capable of producing brilliant results if the tournament turns sharp and tactical. Markets rank him at place #6, with 10% chances to win.
Anish Giri (Netherlands, 2753)
Dutch #1 enters his fourth Candidates Tournament as the 2025 FIDE Grand Swiss Winner, and shows more ambitious and attacking style this year. Viswanathan Anand has identified Giri as one of the threats, noting that for the ‘veterans’ (Giri, Nakamura and Caruana), this cycle feels like a “now or never” moment. Giri is one of the most consistent elite players of the last decade, and this fact certainly increases his chances to qualify for the World Championship. It seems that Giri is ready to win the tournament, and he even shared a secret battle plan of how he’ll do so. Market analysis rank him with a 10% win probability.
Javokhir Sindarov (Uzbekistan, 2745)
The 2025 FIDE World Cup Winner is the spark plug of the tournament. Commentator Jan Gustafsson describes him as “one of the most aggressive and optimistic players in the entire field,” specifically noting his fearlessness in double-edged positions. At only 20 years old, Javokhir Sindarov established himself as a leading figure of the new generation. He carries a 15% win probability of winning the Candidates, fueled by the momentum of the “Uzbekistan surge.”
Praggnanandhaa R (India, 2741)
Qualifying for the event as the 2025 FIDE Circuit Winner, Pragg is making his second Candidates appearance at age 20. Viswanathan Anand believes he is “mentally peaking” just in time for Cyprus. If he manages his stamina and trusts his intuition, his 12% win probability could skyrocket as the tournament progresses. Pragg is also one of the favourites of Vishy Anand, while Peter Svidler states that the young Indian “has a decent shot”.
Andrey Esipenko (FIDE, 2698)
Esipenko qualified for the Candidates as the 2025 FIDE World Cup 3rd Place finisher. He is a debutant who has been knocking on the door of the elite for years. Known for a blend of creativity and technical discipline, Esipenko is considered a dangerous opponent who could act as a “trap” for overconfident favorites. Many believe his ceiling is higher than his ranking suggests, but the official polymarket rankings give him only 3% chances.
Matthias Bluebaum (Germany, 2698)
Matthias Bluebaum should be the clear underdog at the Tournament. But his results in the previous year, including silver medal at the 2025 FIDE Grand Swiss (which booked him a seat for Candidates) and European Individual Chess Championship gold, give a clue that Bluebaum should be seriously considered. Overwhelmed in Keymer era, Bluebaum is still the first German in a decade to reach this stage! While experts call him an outsider, Bluebaum’s strength can be “very strange,” creating winning positions against the world’s best and carrying a “spoiler” potential that could ruin the hopes of others. Polymarket confirms experts saying, ranking him at 3% chances of winning the tournament despite the fact that Bluebaum scores 56.3% (2 wins, 5 draws, 1 loss) against the field!
