The lastest C-Squared Podcast with Cristian Chirila and Fabiano Caruana discussed the famous Hans Niemann Interview. Watch the full episode below. In the final part of the episode, the hosts discussed players’ chances in the SCC Semifinals in Paris.
Cristian Chirila: We are going to have the match Magnus Carlsen vs Hans Niemann in Paris. How do you see the odds for this match?
Fabiano Caruana: I think the odds are overwhelming for Magnus. Hans has played very well but I would view Magnus still as a heavy favorite.
I think I gave Magnus 90% odds for the match against Arjun Erigaisi, or 85 to 90. I would estimate it even higher against Hans, like 95 percent.
Maybe people will get upset about that estimate but I don’t think it’s unreasonable. I mean, Hans is a good player, but he’s not at Magnus’s level. And even though he was able to beat Wesley So and Maxime Vachier-Lagrave, they played very inconsistently, there was a lot of bad decisions, tilt, a lot of things that they could have done better.
I don’t think Magnus will make those mistakes, Hans just has to outplay Magnus in every single game for an entire match. I don’t see that happening. 5 percent, max 10 percent for Hans.
I think Hikaru Nakamura vs Alireza Firouzja match is a much closer affair, where Hikaru probably takes 55 to 45 edge, about as small edge as you can give him.
